Participating in a climate futures market increases support for costly climate policies

A large gap exists between the concerns over the risks of climate change and the support needed for effective climate actions. We show that participating in a market where individuals make predictions on future climate outcomes and earn money can change climate attitudes, behaviour and knowledge.

Recommendations for policy

• Participation in a climate prediction market, where individuals make bets on outcomes and earn money when they are correct, results in more climate concern, support and knowledge.

• Climate prediction markets can be used by policymakers as a highly accurate polling mechanism.

• The market, at scale, can infuse private money into climate efforts. It can act as an exchange where those who hold inaccurate beliefs sponsor policies with the money they lose.

• The market allows policymakers to leverage the wisdom of the crowd to estimate future outcomes based on current bet values. Thus, it ameliorates the brain’s challenge in valuing distant consequences.

• The market acts as an agreed-upon referee and, through its anonymity, protects social standing in groups where alignment with science on politicized issues results in exclusion.