Abstract
Observed maximum water heights from tsunamis vary by up to two orders of magnitude for a given earthquake size, presenting a challenge to emergency management. We provide a quantitative framework to investigate the influence of rupture depth and rigidity in explaining such variability. The results highlight the importance of rapid estimation of shallow slip with available geophysical data if reliable warning of local tsunamis is to be realized.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$259.00 per year
only $21.58 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
from$1.95
to$39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The processed water heights from observations and model data in Figs. 1 and 2 are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16944163.
Code availability
The megathrust model and code, specifically set up for this study, are available for academic research upon request.
References
Melgar, D. et al. Local tsunami warnings: perspectives from recent large events. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 1109–1117 (2016).
Lay, T., Liu, C. & Kanamori, H. Enhancing tsunami warning using P wave coda. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 10583–10609 (2019).
Kanamori, H. Mechanism of tsunami earthquakes. Phys. Earth. Planet. Inter. 6, 346–359 (1972).
Sallarés, V. & Ranero, C. R. Upper-plate rigidity determines depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes. Nature 576, 96–101 (2019).
Polet, J. & Kanamori, H. Shallow subduction zone earthquakes and their tsunamigenic potential. Geophys. J. Int. 142, 684–702 (2000).
Bilek, S. & Lay, T. Tsunami earthquakes possibly widespread manifestations of frictional conditional stability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1673 (2002).
Allen, T. I. & Hayes, G. P. Alternative rupture-scaling relationships for subduction interface and other offshore environments. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 107, 1240–1253 (2017).
Yamazaki, Y., Kowalik, Z. & Cheung, K. F. Depth-integrated, non-hydrostatic model for wave breaking and run-up. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 61, 473–497 (2009).
Lay, T. et al. Depth-varying rupture properties of subduction zone megathrust faults. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 117, B04311 (2012).
Li, L. et al. Effects of dispersion in tsunami Green’s functions and implications for joint inversion with seismic and geodetic data: a case study of the 2010 Mentawai Mw 7.8 earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 182–11,191 (2016).
Yamazaki, Y., Cheung, K. & Lay, T. A self-consistent fault slip model for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 123, 1435–1458 (2018).
Hill, E. M. et al. The 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai earthquake: very shallow source of a rare tsunami earthquake determined from tsunami field survey and near-field GPS data. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 117, B006402 (2012).
Kanamori, H. & Rivera, L. Source inversion of W phase: speeding up seismic tsunami warning. Geophys. J. Int. 175, 222–238 (2008).
Aki, K. Generation and propagation of G waves from the Niigata earthquake of June 16, 1964: part 2. estimation of earthquake moment, released energy, and stress-strain drop from the G wave spectrum. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. 44, 73–88 (1966).
Kanamori, H. The energy release in great earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 82, 2981–2987 (1977).
Okada, Y. Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 75, 1125–1154 (1985).
Tanioka, Y. & Satake, K. Tsunami generation by horizontal displacement of ocean bottom. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 861–864 (1996).
Bai, Y., Yamazaki, Y. & Cheung, K. F. Convergence of multilayer nonhydrostatic models in relation to Boussinesq-type equations. J. Waterw. Port Coast. Ocean Eng. 14, 06018001–06018001 (2018).
Li, L. & Cheung, K. F. Numerical dispersion in non-hydrostatic modeling of long-wave propagation. Ocean Model. 138, 68–87 (2019).
Yamazaki, Y., Cheung, K. F. & Kowalik, Z. Depth-integrated, non-hydrostatic model with grid nesting for tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 67, 2081–2107 (2011).
Fujiwara, T. et al. The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: displacement reaching the trench axis. Science 334, 1240 (2011).
Ito, T., Ozawa, K., Watanabe, T. & Sagiya, T. Slip distribution of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake inferred from geodetic data. Earth Planets Space 63, 627–630 (2011).
Global Historical Tsunami Database, US National Centers for Environmental Information, World Data Service, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5PN93H7 (2021).
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge support from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through NA19NWS4670012 (K.C., Y.Y. and L.S.) and National Science Foundation through EAR1802364 (T.L.). SOEST contribution no. 11418.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
K.C. and T.L. conceived the study and wrote the draft manuscript; Y.Y. customized NEOWAVE for implementation; L.S. carried out the tsunami modelling and data processing; and all authors worked collaborative to interpret the data and finalize the manuscript for publication.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Peer review information Nature Geoscience thanks Kelin Wang and Aditya Gusman for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Stefan Lachowycz; Rebecca Neely.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cheung, K.F., Lay, T., Sun, L. et al. Tsunami size variability with rupture depth. Nat. Geosci. 15, 33–36 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00869-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00869-z
This article is cited by
-
Similar seismic moment release process for shallow and deep earthquakes
Nature Geoscience (2023)