Source: Getty Images/Cultura RF/Jason Persoff Stormdoctor

Climate extremes in a 1.5 °C world

Some recent research and comment dealing with climate extremes, impacts and responses.

Latest Research

  • Letter |

    Projections of Arctic sea-ice loss vary significantly between global circulation models. Analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble reveals that these differences can be related to background ice thickness and corresponding growth/melt processes, and not variations in the sea-ice model used.

    • François Massonnet
    • , Martin Vancoppenolle
    • , Hugues Goosse
    • , David Docquier
    • , Thierry Fichefet
    •  & Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
  • Letter |

    A 1.5 °C temperature target can have varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with it. GCM simulations reveal CO2 increases have a direct impact on climate extremes, highlighting the need for climate policy to complement temperature goals with CO2 targets.

    • Hugh S. Baker
    • , Richard J. Millar
    • , David J. Karoly
    • , Urs Beyerle
    • , Benoit P. Guillod
    • , Dann Mitchell
    • , Hideo Shiogama
    • , Sarah Sparrow
    • , Tim Woollings
    •  & Myles R. Allen
  • Letter |

    New fossil fuel investments may become stranded if demand for fossil fuel declines due to technological change. This could amount to a discounted global wealth loss of US$1–4 trillion, with the negative impact for producer countries amplified by climate mitigation policies of consumer countries.

    • J.-F. Mercure
    • , H. Pollitt
    • , J. E. Viñuales
    • , N. R. Edwards
    • , P. B. Holden
    • , U. Chewpreecha
    • , P. Salas
    • , I. Sognnaes
    • , A. Lam
    •  & F. Knobloch
  • Perspective |

    Climate memory is anticipated to increase in the future, a process known as reddening. This Perspective examines how a change in the temporal autocorrelation of climate variables may impact the likelihood of critical transitions, using examples from forests, coral reefs, poverty traps and ice sheets.

    • Bregje van der Bolt
    • , Egbert H. van Nes
    • , Sebastian Bathiany
    • , Marlies E. Vollebregt
    •  & Marten Scheffer
  • Perspective |

    Climate change poses a financial risk but it is unclear what management role there is for central banks and financial regulators. This Perspective outlines research and policy directions needed for financial sector engagement.

    • Emanuele Campiglio
    • , Yannis Dafermos
    • , Pierre Monnin
    • , Josh Ryan-Collins
    • , Guido Schotten
    •  & Misa Tanaka
  • Article |

    Editorials in multi-disciplinary journals can influence professional scientists and wider public discourse. This study compares how editorials on climate change in Nature and Science have changed over time and in response to wider political events

    • Mike Hulme
    • , Noam Obermeister
    • , Samuel Randalls
    •  & Maud Borie

News & Comment

  • Comment |

    Low-probability, high-consequence climate change events are likely to trigger management responses that are based on the demand for immediate action from those affected. However, these responses may be inefficient and even maladaptive in the long term.

    • Sarah E. Anderson
    • , Ryan R. Bart
    • , Maureen C. Kennedy
    • , Andrew J. MacDonald
    • , Max A. Moritz
    • , Andrew J. Plantinga
    • , Christina L. Tague
    •  & Matthew Wibbenmeyer
  • Comment |

    New international governance arrangements that manage environmental risk and potential conflicts of interests are needed to facilitate negative emissions research that is essential to achieving the large-scale CO2 removal implied by the Paris Agreement targets.

    • Kerryn Brent
    • , Jeffrey McGee
    • , Jan McDonald
    •  & Eelco J. Rohling
  • Feature |

    Credit ratings agencies are now accounting for climate change risks in their ratings of credit worthiness. This could incentivize climate risk reduction efforts if it allows organizations access to cheaper credit. Karl Mathiesen investigates the extent to which this is happening in practice.

    • Karl Mathiesen

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