Research articles

Polluted water contributes to water scarcity. Here the authors project water demands, availability and quality under climate and socio-economic changes and show that 56–66% of the global population will be exposed to clean water scarcity at the end of the century.

International maritime shipping accounts for an important proportion of global CO₂ emissions, but its role in a world with deep decarbonization has not been thoroughly examined. Through a multi-model comparison, this study reveals the necessity of reducing and stabilizing emissions from this sector in the next few decades.

Carbon removal using carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains controversial. This study finds that cross-border CO₂ transport would hinder public acceptance of CCS, associated with the perceived unfairness.

How climate services support on-farm management is not well understood. Here research shows that multi-decadal projections help farmers better identify future climate risks through reducing complexity and psychological distance, although this may be impeded by lack of confidence in data.

Projections of Arctic warming have large uncertainties. Here the authors consider ocean heat transport and its contribution to Arctic warming; high-resolution model results show increased Bering Strait transport compared with lower-resolution results, with implications for projected warming rates.

Carbon dioxide removals (CDR) have been integrated into country-submitted reports under the Paris Agreement. However, this Analysis finds a gap between levels of CDR in these national proposals and the scenarios limiting global warming to the 1.5 °C target.

The authors perform a meta-analysis to assess current and future capacities of healthcare systems under climate change. They summarize the key focus points of current literature and highlight the need for effective policies, trained workforces and redesigned infrastructure to meet future burdens.

Methane emissions from abandoned mines have been underestimated in emissions inventories even though they may become a dominant source of emissions as coal is phased out. Using a detailed bottom-up dataset, the authors find that a strategy targeting the closure of gas-rich mines could have a large mitigation potential

Defining thresholds for extreme weather events is important for adaptation but often ignores impacts on climate-vulnerable communities. This research finds current practices do not capture experiences of women in informal settlements and self-reported impact data could help to address the issue.

Climate change will affect the adoption of residential rooftop solar photovoltaics by changing the patterns of both electricity generation and demand. This research projects that climate change will increase the future value and optimal capacity of household rooftop solar across the United States.

Existing global economic damage assessments only focus on the impacts induced by annual temperature changes. Including variability and extremes of temperature and precipitation in climate damage projections raises global gross domestic product losses and exacerbates global disparities of economic damage.

The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen marked an important step in global climate action with parties submitting 2020 mitigation targets. However, this retrospective study shows that many countries either have failed to meet their targets or have reduced their emissions through carbon leakage.

The authors link intensification of cold upwelling in two western boundary currents to the observed death of marine organisms, and upwelling avoidance behaviour in bull sharks. They raise concerns of increased risk of cold-mortality events for climate migrants at their poleward distribution limits.

The authors use individual-based models to assess the contribution of frugivore-mediated seed dispersal to forest restoration. They show that the movement of large birds—which disperse seeds with higher carbon storage potential—is limited in landscapes with low forest cover (<40%).

The degree to which changes in marine organisms due to warming can influence tropical cyclones is not well known. Here the authors show that changing chlorophyll patterns can lead to more landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia.

Hydrological sensitivity describes how much precipitation changes for a given warming. Here, the authors show that the hydrological sensitivity differs between the three tropical ocean basins, which influences land rainfall changes across the tropical and mid-latitude regions.

Most of the meteorites on the Earth’s surface are found in Antarctica. Here the authors show that ~5,000 meteorites become inaccessible per year as they melt into the ice due to climate change.

The authors use resurrected strains of a diatom species to compare temperature optima, cell size and gene expression across 60 years. Modern samples have a 1 °C higher temperature optima and probably support increased nutrient uptake, highlighting the adaptation potential of diatoms to global change.

Using a global meta-analysis approach, the authors show that elevated CO₂ alone can increase primary productivity and leaf C/N ratio and stimulate nitrogen fixation and nitrogen use efficiency. They project increasing carbon sink and decreasing reactive nitrogen loss under climate change.

As the financial system is increasingly important in catalysing the green transition, it is critical to assess the impediments it may face. This study shows that existing financial regulations may impair the shift of financial resources from high-carbon to low-carbon assets.