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Volume 14 Issue 1, January 2024

Increasing predictability of tropical circulation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a mode of weekly-to-subseasonal atmospheric variability, mainly observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean. The MJO strongly influences rainfall in these areas, but can also influence weather conditions in other regions of the world. Writing in this issue, Du et al. show that the MJO has become more predictable in recent decades, mainly driven by anthropogenic warming.

See Du et al. and News & Views by Jenney

Image: Nigel Prosser / Alamy Stock Photo. Cover design: Valentina Monaco

Editorial

  • Soaring temperatures hit the headlines throughout 2023; only time will tell if the annual climate talks have pivoted from discussion and debate to meaningful progress for climate action.

    Editorial

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Comment

  • Policies and psychological approaches often overemphasize individual agency, overlooking how socioeconomic inequality can constrain access to low-carbon alternatives. We argue that tackling these inequalities is urgent for impactful, equitable behaviour change.

    • Charlotte A. Kukowski
    • Emma E. Garnett
    Comment
  • The triple climate inequality crisis, or disparities in contributions, impacts and capacity to act within and between countries, is a central issue in addressing climate change. This Comment advocates for progressive wealth taxation as a viable solution to the finance gap.

    • Lucas Chancel
    • Philipp Bothe
    • Tancrède Voituriez
    Comment
  • Communal life is characterized by the shared timing of human and environmental events. Climate change is disrupting these timings, creating mismatches in these coordinated temporal patterns and requiring adaptive governance.

    • Scott Bremer
    • Nicole Klenk
    • Danielle Kwan-Lafond
    Comment
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Obituary

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Research Highlights

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News & Views

  • The shale gas revolution has provided a cheap and relatively clean alternative for coal, but it also threatens the future market for renewables. Recent projections indicate that without tightening climate policy, shale gas will indefinitely delay the transition to net zero.

    • Reyer Gerlagh
    • Sjak Smulders
    News & Views
  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large storm system over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, plays a crucial role in our ability to forecast Earth’s weather 2–4 weeks in advance. Now, research suggests that the predictability of the MJO itself is increasing and will continue to increase with global warming.

    • Andrea Jenney
    News & Views
  • Both warming and precipitation changes are affecting the global carbon cycle, although the impact of the frequency and intensity of climate extremes on carbon cycling is unclear. Now, research suggests that most extreme events enhance soil organic carbon losses under warming globally.

    • Emanuele Lugato
    News & Views
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Policy Brief

  • Funding large-scale negative emissions through a carbon market designed for traditional emission reduction strategies risks exacerbating long-term economic inequality. We suggest exploring alternative financing mechanisms that address this concern and that still ensure decarbonization at reasonable costs.

    • Pietro Andreoni
    • Johannes Emmerling
    • Massimo Tavoni
    Policy Brief
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Perspectives

  • Justice issues are integral to a variety of climate science and policy processes. This Perspective provides a framework, based on philosophical theory, to explain key justice concepts and how they can be applied in climate discussions.

    • Caroline Zimm
    • Kian Mintz-Woo
    • Thomas Schinko
    Perspective
  • This Perspective evaluates efforts using machine learning to track global progress on adaptation, focusing on recent efforts in text analysis. It discusses practical and theoretical challenges, lessons learned and ways forward. It urges the adaptation community to prepare for a paradigm shift.

    • Anne J. Sietsma
    • James D. Ford
    • Jan C. Minx
    Perspective
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Matters Arising

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Articles

  • Negative emissions technologies at scale are seen as essential for the overall decarbonization effort to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. However, private ownership of these technologies could largely increase regional or international inequality by financing them through carbon markets.

    • Pietro Andreoni
    • Johannes Emmerling
    • Massimo Tavoni
    Article
  • Climate change is expected to strengthen atmospheric jet streams. Here the authors show that the fastest upper-level jet stream winds accelerate about 2.5 times faster under climate change than average winds, which could influence aviation and severe weather events.

    • Tiffany A. Shaw
    • Osamu Miyawaki
    Article Open Access
  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a key feature of tropical weather on a multi-weekly timescale. Here, the authors show that the MJO becomes more predictable with climate change, potentially allowing better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.

    • Danni Du
    • Aneesh C. Subramanian
    • Elizabeth Bradley
    Article
  • It has been suggested that Antarctic ice sheets can become unstable and undergo irreversible retreat, but so far observational evidence for this mechanism is missing. Here, the authors show evidence that such an irreversible retreat occurred at Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica in the 1970s.

    • Brad Reed
    • J. A. Mattias Green
    • G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
    Article Open Access
  • Oxygen loss has been observed in the world’s oceans, due mainly to warming temperatures that reduce oxygen solubility and increase stratification. This study shows climate-induced salinity changes also impact oxygen patterns with effects either accelerating or counteracting warming-driven changes.

    • Allison Hogikyan
    • Laure Resplandy
    • Gabriel Vecchi
    Article
  • The impact of climate change on soil carbon remains uncertain. This study shows that soil carbon in forests increases in response to elevated CO2, but the response to warming and nitrogen deposition depends on mycorrhizal associations, indicating a trade-off between soil and plant carbon.

    • Kai Yang
    • Qian Zhang
    • G. Geoff Wang
    Article
  • Warming temperatures associated with climate change are expected to impact soil carbon stocks, yet the effect of more frequent and intense extreme climate events on soil carbon is yet unclear. This study shows that most extremes enhance soil carbon loss globally, with variation across ecosystems.

    • Mingming Wang
    • Shuai Zhang
    • Zhongkui Luo
    Article
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Amendments & Corrections

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