Climate and Earth system modelling articles within Nature

Featured

  • Analysis
    | Open Access

    Analyses of drivers of water stress are used to predict likely trajectories of the Amazon forest system and suggests potential actions that could prevent system collapse.

    • Bernardo M. Flores
    • , Encarni Montoya
    •  & Marina Hirota

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Aligning the IPCC-assessed mitigation pathways with the national greenhouse gas inventories shows that key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve, requiring achieving earlier net-zero and lower cumulative emissions.

    • Matthew J. Gidden
    • , Thomas Gasser
    •  & Keywan Riahi

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Short-lived halogens have a substantial indirect cooling effect on climate and this cooling effect has increased since pre-industrial times owing to anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions.

    • Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
    • , Rafael P. Fernandez
    •  & Jean-François Lamarque

  • Article
    | Open Access

    We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.

    • Johan Rockström
    • , Joyeeta Gupta
    •  & Xin Zhang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of contemporary reports of total lunar eclipses, combined with aerosol model simulations and tree-ring-based climate proxies, allowed greater precision in dating of the occurrence of stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the High Medieval Period.

    • Sébastien Guillet
    • , Christophe Corona
    •  & Markus Stoffel

  • Review Article |

    Examination of available evidence on whether anthropogenic global warming was preceded by a long-term warming trend or by global cooling provides support for a relatively mild millennial-scale global thermal maximum during the mid-Holocene.

    • Darrell S. Kaufman
    •  & Ellie Broadman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of new observations from the EUREC4A field campaign shows that lower-tropospheric mixing does not desiccate the base of trade cumulus clouds, refuting the mixing-desiccation hypothesis and explaining the weak trade cumulus feedback.

    • Raphaela Vogel
    • , Anna Lea Albright
    •  & Sandrine Bony

  • Article |

    An integrated ozone depletion metric indicates the impact of any new emission and provides a useful complementary metric of the impact of specific emissions of an ozone depleting substance for both the scientific and policy communities.

    • John A. Pyle
    • , James Keeble
    •  & Paul T. Griffiths

  • Article |

    Model simulations show that the historical relationship between global temperature and precipitation under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario lowers the projected high end of future precipitation change.

    • Hideo Shiogama
    • , Masahiro Watanabe
    •  & Nagio Hirota

  • Article |

    A study uses a temperature-percentile water mass framework to analyse warm-to-cold poleward transport of freshwater in the Earth system, and establishes a constraint to help address biases in climate models.

    • Taimoor Sohail
    • , Jan D. Zika
    •  & John A. Church

  • Article |

    Through an idealized set of simulations, with a model that incorporates key physics, research reveals dramatic swings between massive rainfall events and extended dry periods in hothouse climates.

    • Jacob T. Seeley
    •  & Robin D. Wordsworth

  • Article |

    Preliminary modelling of airborne microplastics suggests that they may be exerting a minor cooling influence on the present-day atmosphere, and continued production could have increasing effects on the climate system in future.

    • Laura E. Revell
    • , Peter Kuma
    •  & Sally Gaw

  • Article |

    Modelling suggests that the Montreal Protocol may be mitigating climate change by protecting the land carbon sink, as well as by protecting the ozone layer and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    • Paul J. Young
    • , Anna B. Harper
    •  & Rolando R. Garcia

  • Article |

    A revised date for the Laacher See eruption using measurements of subfossil trees shifts the chronology of European varved lakes relative to the Greenland ice core record, synchronizing the onset of the Younger Dryas across the North Atlantic–European sector.

    • Frederick Reinig
    • , Lukas Wacker
    •  & Ulf Büntgen

  • Review Article |

    Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.

    • Paul D. L. Ritchie
    • , Joseph J. Clarke
    •  & Chris Huntingford

  • Article |

    A compilation of proxy data are used with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to constrain cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum, producing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity that agree well with the current consensus range.

    • Jessica E. Tierney
    • , Jiang Zhu
    •  & Christopher J. Poulsen

  • Article |

    Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

    • D. M. Smith
    • , A. A. Scaife
    •  & L. Zhang

  • Article |

    Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

    • Jens Terhaar
    • , Lester Kwiatkowski
    •  & Laurent Bopp

  • Article |

    Analyses of mitochondrial genomes from populations in southern Africa provide evidence of a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans and a sustained occupation of the homeland before the first migrations of people appear to be driven by regional climate shifts.

    • Eva K. F. Chan
    • , Axel Timmermann
    •  & Vanessa M. Hayes

  • Letter |

    Observations and regional climate models show that the increasing coverage of ice slabs on the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a global sea-level rise of up to 74 millimetres by 2100.

    • M. MacFerrin
    • , H. Machguth
    •  & W. Abdalati

  • Article |

    Fundamental value judgments about acceptable maximum levels of climate change and future reliance on controversial technologies can be made explicitly in climate scenarios, thereby addressing the intergenerational bias present in the scenario literature.

    • Joeri Rogelj
    • , Daniel Huppmann
    •  & Malte Meinshausen

  • Article |

    Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as at the beginning of the twentieth century.

    • Kate Marvel
    • , Benjamin I. Cook
    •  & A. Park Williams

  • Article |

    Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.

    • Ben Bronselaer
    • , Michael Winton
    •  & Joellen L. Russell

  • Article |

    Climate model simulations reveal that recent destructive tropical cyclones would have been equally intense in terms of wind speed but would have produced less rainfall if these events had occurred in pre-industrial climates, and in future climates they would have greater wind speeds and rainfall.

    • Christina M. Patricola
    •  & Michael F. Wehner

  • Brief Communications Arising |

    • Peter M. Cox
    • , Mark S. Williamson
    •  & Chris Huntingford

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