Climate-change impacts articles within Nature

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of population decline shows that frequent disturbances enhance a population’s capacity to resist and recover from downturns and that trade-offs exist when adopting new or alternative land-use strategies.

    • Philip Riris
    • , Fabio Silva
    •  & Xiaolin Ren

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of projected sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation show an income reduction of 19% of the world economy within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.

    • Maximilian Kotz
    • , Anders Levermann
    •  & Leonie Wenz

  • Article |

    By examining the hourly diurnal cycle of 23,557 fires in North America during 2017–2020, 1,095 overnight burning events were identified, mostly associated with extreme fires and driven by long-term drought conditions.

    • Kaiwei Luo
    • , Xianli Wang
    •  & Mike Flannigan

  • Article |

    A machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH3 emission factors globally shows that global NH3 emissions in 2018 were lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices.

    • Peng Xu
    • , Geng Li
    •  & Benjamin Z. Houlton

  • Article |

    A global profile of tropical cyclone population exposure for the period 2002–2019 shows a steady increase, with approximately 560 million people exposed yearly and a disproportionate exposure among those with lower socioeconomic status.

    • Renzhi Jing
    • , Sam Heft-Neal
    •  & Zachary Wagner

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits show unequal impacts on the global values of natural capital resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover.

    • B. A. Bastien-Olvera
    • , M. N. Conte
    •  & F. C. Moore

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Simulations using two state-of-the-art ice-sheet models show that abrupt melting of the Greenland ice sheet following overshooting of the global mean temperature critical threshold can be mitigated by subsequent cooling to below 1.5 °C.

    • Nils Bochow
    • , Anna Poltronieri
    •  & Niklas Boers

  • Article |

    Analysis of high-resolution annual data shows that global human settlements have expanded continuously and rapidly into flood zones, with those in the most hazardous zones increasing by 122% from 1985 to 2015.

    • Jun Rentschler
    • , Paolo Avner
    •  & Stéphane Hallegatte

  • Article
    | Open Access

    We identify a seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones that is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions.

    • Kaiyue Shan
    • , Yanluan Lin
    •  & Fengfei Song

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The global population is increasingly exposed to daily landscape fire-sourced air pollution but there are socioeconomic disparities, with this pollution four times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries during the period 2000–2019.

    • Rongbin Xu
    • , Tingting Ye
    •  & Shanshan Li

  • Article |

    Of 248 marine heatwaves between 1993 and 2019 in North American and European seas, the effects on fish biomass were often minimal, and the heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization or deborealization.

    • Alexa L. Fredston
    • , William W. L. Cheung
    •  & Malin L. Pinsky

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Without mitigation, relative sea-level rises under current climate change projections will exceed the capacity of coastal habitats such as mangroves and tidal marshes to adjust, leading to instability and profound changes to coastal ecosystems.

    • Neil Saintilan
    • , Benjamin Horton
    •  & Glenn Guntenspergen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Measurements of the net ecosystem exchanges of CO2, CH4 and soil N2O from Acacia plantation, degraded forest and intact forest enable presentation of the peatland wood plantation rotation greenhouse gas flux balance.

    • Chandra S. Deshmukh
    • , Ari P. Susanto
    •  & Chris D. Evans

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Weakening blocking effect of the High Mountain Asia on the westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation from the southeast North Atlantic is demonstrated, leading to persistent northward expansion of terrestrial water storage deficit in the Tibet Plateau.

    • Qiang Zhang
    • , Zexi Shen
    •  & Gang Wang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of Landsat imagery from the past two decades allows quantification of the changes in salt marsh ecosystems, as well as associated carbon emissions resulting from net global losses.

    • Anthony D. Campbell
    • , Lola Fatoyinbo
    •  & David Lagomasino

  • Perspective |

    The unquantified, poorly understood and uncertain risks of climate change in economic valuations are identified and classified, and an integrated approach is proposed to include these missing risks in future valuations and decision-making processes.

    • James Rising
    • , Marco Tedesco
    •  & David A. Stainforth

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Coupling advances in socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions and discounting methods yields an estimate of the social cost of carbon of US$185 per tonne of CO2—triple the widely used value published by the US government.

    • Kevin Rennert
    • , Frank Errickson
    •  & David Anthoff

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A boreal conifer is advancing northwards into Arctic tundra, with this treeline advance facilitated by climate warming together with winter winds, deeper snow and increased soil nutrient availability.

    • Roman J. Dial
    • , Colin T. Maher
    •  & Patrick F. Sullivan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Suppression of salicylic acid production in Arabidopsis thaliana at high temperature is caused by decreased recruitment of GUANYLATE BINDING PROTEIN-LIKE 3 defence-associated condensates on promoter sites of master immune regulatory genes.

    • Jong Hum Kim
    • , Christian Danve M. Castroverde
    •  & Sheng Yang He

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Mesocosm experiments in different biomes show that future ocean acidification will slow down the dissolution of biogenic silica, decreasing silicic acid availability in the surface ocean and triggering a global decline of diatoms as revealed by Earth system model simulations.

    • Jan Taucher
    • , Lennart T. Bach
    •  & Ulf Riebesell

  • Article |

    Changes in climate and land use will lead to species aggregating in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of animal-associated viruses.

    • Colin J. Carlson
    • , Gregory F. Albery
    •  & Shweta Bansal

  • Article |

    Sustainable mariculture could increase seafood production under almost all climate-change scenarios analysed, but this would require substantial fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices.

    • Christopher M. Free
    • , Reniel B. Cabral
    •  & Steven D. Gaines

  • Article |

    An analysis of satellite observations and climate data shows that night-time fire intensity has increased over the past two decades owing to hotter and drier nights under anthropogenic climate change.

    • Jennifer K. Balch
    • , John T. Abatzoglou
    •  & A. Park Williams

  • Article |

    A global assessment shows that increases in the number of wet days and extreme daily rainfall adversely affect economic growth, particularly in high-income nations and via the services and manufacturing sectors.

    • Maximilian Kotz
    • , Anders Levermann
    •  & Leonie Wenz

  • Article |

    Using global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate the damages induced by the emission of one ton of carbon dioxide, climate change is projected to increase electricity spending but reduce overall end-use energy expenditure.

    • Ashwin Rode
    • , Tamma Carleton
    •  & Jiacan Yuan

  • Article |

    Analysis of satellite stereo imagery uncovers two decades of mass change for all of Earth’s glaciers, revealing accelerated glacier shrinkage and regionally contrasting changes consistent with decadal climate variability.

    • Romain Hugonnet
    • , Robert McNabb
    •  & Andreas Kääb

  • Review Article |

    This Review proposes an interdisciplinary framework for researching climate–society interactions that focuses on the mechanisms through which climate change has influenced societies, and the uncertainties of discerning this influence across different spatiotemporal scales.

    • Dagomar Degroot
    • , Kevin Anchukaitis
    •  & Natale Zappia

  • Article |

    Modelling and remote sensing show that by the end of the twenty-first century, lake heatwaves will be several degrees Celsius warmer and some will be months longer, with potentially major adverse consequences for lake ecosystems.

    • R. Iestyn Woolway
    • , Eleanor Jennings
    •  & Stephen C. Maberly

  • Article |

    North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes are weakening more slowly than in the past because warming oceans are increasing the moisture carried by the storm until it hits land, and this storm moisture acts as an ongoing heat source post-landfall.

    • Lin Li
    •  & Pinaki Chakraborty

  • Article |

    Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.

    • Michael G. Jacox
    • , Michael A. Alexander
    •  & James D. Scott

  • Article |

    An analysis based on Landsat imagery shows that the extent of river ice has declined extensively over past decades and that this trend will continue under future global warming.

    • Xiao Yang
    • , Tamlin M. Pavelsky
    •  & George H. Allen

  • Article |

    Since the 1980s, rapid warming of the Indo-Pacific warm pool has altered global rainfall pattern by changing the residence time of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, decreasing it by 3–4 days over the Indian Ocean and increasing it over the Indo-Pacific by 5–6 days.

    • M. K. Roxy
    • , Panini Dasgupta
    •  & Daehyun Kim

  • Analysis |

    Climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries, and intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict, although other drivers are substantially more influential and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain uncertain.

    • Katharine J. Mach
    • , Caroline M. Kraan
    •  & Nina von Uexkull

  • Article |

    Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.

    • Ben Bronselaer
    • , Michael Winton
    •  & Joellen L. Russell

  • Letter |

    A global modelling approach shows that in response to rises in global sea level, gains of up to 60% in coastal wetland areas are possible, if appropriate coastal management solutions are developed to help support wetland resilience.

    • Mark Schuerch
    • , Tom Spencer
    •  & Sally Brown

  • Perspective |

    The future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean by 2070 is described under two scenarios, one in which action is taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and one in which no action is taken.

    • S. R. Rintoul
    • , S. L. Chown
    •  & J. C. Xavier

  • Letter |

    The translation speed of tropical cyclones has decreased globally by 10% over the past 70 years, compounding the increases in cyclone-related local rainfall that have resulted from anthropogenic warming.

    • James P. Kossin

  • Outlook |

    The increasing acidity of our seas is a threat to marine life that for many species may be impossible to overcome.

    • Sarah DeWeerdt

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