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Article
| Open AccessSpread in climate policy scenarios unravelled
A Sobol attribution analysis unveils the roles of mitigation targets, model differences and scenario assumptions in shaping climate policy scenario outcomes.
- Mark M. Dekker
- , Andries F. Hof
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Article
| Open AccessEnding extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions
Global emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty are limited.
- Philip Wollburg
- , Stephane Hallegatte
- & Daniel Gerszon Mahler
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Article
| Open AccessAligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks
Aligning the IPCC-assessed mitigation pathways with the national greenhouse gas inventories shows that key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve, requiring achieving earlier net-zero and lower cumulative emissions.
- Matthew J. Gidden
- , Thomas Gasser
- & Keywan Riahi
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Article
| Open AccessIntegrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
Analysis of ground-sourced and satellite-derived models reveals a global forest carbon potential of 226 Gt outside agricultural and urban lands, with a difference of only 12% across these modelling approaches.
- Lidong Mo
- , Constantin M. Zohner
- & Thomas W. Crowther
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Article
| Open AccessAccelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China
To meet China’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, substantial investment in upgrading power systems needs to be made to optimize the deployment of new photovoltaic and wind power plants.
- Yijing Wang
- , Rong Wang
- & Renhe Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessThe carbon costs of global wood harvests
A new model uses time discounting to estimate the present and future carbon costs of global wood harvests under different scenarios, suggesting an underappreciated option to address climate change.
- Liqing Peng
- , Timothy D. Searchinger
- & Richard Waite
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Article
| Open AccessNet greenhouse gas balance of fibre wood plantation on peat in Indonesia
Measurements of the net ecosystem exchanges of CO2, CH4 and soil N2O from Acacia plantation, degraded forest and intact forest enable presentation of the peatland wood plantation rotation greenhouse gas flux balance.
- Chandra S. Deshmukh
- , Ari P. Susanto
- & Chris D. Evans
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Article |
Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions
Three alternative CO2 emission-mitigation pathways were analysed for the global plastics sector, covering their production to waste management. A circular bioeconomy strategy could achieve negative emissions in the long term, while at the same time allowing landfilling to be phased out and reducing resource consumption.
- Paul Stegmann
- , Vassilis Daioglou
- & Martin Junginger
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Article
| Open AccessBorgs are giant genetic elements with potential to expand metabolic capacity
Borgs are remarkably large, divergent archaeal extrachromosomal elements with metabolic genes linked to the methane cycle.
- Basem Al-Shayeb
- , Marie C. Schoelmerich
- & Jillian F. Banfield
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Matters Arising |
The risks of overstating the climate benefits of ecosystem restoration
- Jonathan C. Doelman
- & Elke Stehfest
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Article |
Delayed use of bioenergy crops might threaten climate and food security
Simulations of historical and future periods of climate change showed that delayed mitigation to limit global warming might reduce the capacity of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and threaten climate stability and food security.
- Siqing Xu
- , Rong Wang
- & Renhe Zhang
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Matters Arising |
Restoration prioritization must be informed by marginalized people
- Forrest Fleischman
- , Eric Coleman
- & Joseph W. Veldman
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Article |
Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein
Replacing 20% of per-capita ruminant consumption with microbial protein can offset future increases in global pasture area, cut annual deforestation and related CO2 emissions in half, and lower methane emissions.
- Florian Humpenöder
- , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
- & Alexander Popp
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Article |
Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C
If all new and updated national climate change mitigation pledges stemming from the Paris Agreement are implemented in full and on time, then 21st-century warming could be limited to just below 2 degrees Celsius.
- Malte Meinshausen
- , Jared Lewis
- & Bernd Hackmann
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Article |
Carbon implications of marginal oils from market-derived demand shocks
Here the non-linear relationship is revealed between carbon emissions reductions and oil demand reductions, which depends on the magnitude of demand drop and the global oil market structure.
- Mohammad S. Masnadi
- , Giacomo Benini
- & Adam R. Brandt
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Article |
A global inventory of photovoltaic solar energy generating units
A global inventory of utility-scale solar photovoltaic generating units, produced by combining remote sensing imagery with machine learning, has identified 68,661 facilities — an increase of over 400% on previously available asset-level data — the majority of which were sited on cropland.
- L. Kruitwagen
- , K. T. Story
- & C. Hepburn
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Article |
Vast CO2 release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite
The amount of carbon dioxide released by the Australian wildfires of 2019–2020 is uncertain, but is estimated here using satellite observations of carbon monoxide to be more than twice the amount suggested by fire inventories.
- Ivar R. van der Velde
- , Guido R. van der Werf
- & Ilse Aben
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Article |
Operationalizing the net-negative carbon economy
To enable net-negative CO2 emissions, the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility for the net removal of CO2 by carbon-emitting parties through carbon removal obligations is necessary.
- Johannes Bednar
- , Michael Obersteiner
- & Jim W. Hall
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Review Article |
Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate
Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.
- Paul D. L. Ritchie
- , Joseph J. Clarke
- & Chris Huntingford
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Article |
Overriding water table control on managed peatland greenhouse gas emissions
Halving average drainage depths in agricultural peatlands could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 1 per cent of all anthropogenic emissions.
- C. D. Evans
- , M. Peacock
- & R. Morrison
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Article |
Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961–2017
Trends in the rate of region- and sector-specific land-use greenhouse gas emissions in 1961–2017 show an acceleration of about 20% per decade after 2001.
- Chaopeng Hong
- , Jennifer A. Burney
- & Steven J. Davis
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Article |
Quantification of an efficiency–sovereignty trade-off in climate policy
An integrated assessment model analysis shows that a moderately differentiated carbon price could achieve as much climate mitigation as a uniform carbon tax, avoiding concerns regarding equity between participating countries or sovereignty.
- Nico Bauer
- , Christoph Bertram
- & Ottmar Edenhofer
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Article |
Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration
Multicriteria optimization identifies global priority areas for ecosystem restoration and estimates their benefits for biodiversity and climate, providing cost–benefit analyses that highlight the importance of optimizing spatial planning and incorporating several biomes in restoration strategies.
- Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
- , Alvaro Iribarrem
- & Piero Visconti
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Article |
Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
A one-kilometre-resolution map of aboveground carbon accumulation rates of forest regrowth shows 100-fold variation across the globe, with rates 32% higher on average than IPCC estimates.
- Susan C. Cook-Patton
- , Sara M. Leavitt
- & Bronson W. Griscom
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
- Jessica Jewell
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Detlef van Vuuren
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Matters Arising |
Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
- Peter Erickson
- , Harro van Asselt
- & Geoffrey Supran
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Perspective |
The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal
Ten pathways for the utilization of carbon dioxide are reviewed, considering their potential scale, economics and barriers to implementation.
- Cameron Hepburn
- , Ella Adlen
- & Charlotte K. Williams
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Letter |
Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels
Scenarios that model a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels find no substantial near-term increase in the rate of warming, and suggest benefits for climate change mitigation and air quality at essentially all timescales.
- Drew Shindell
- & Christopher J. Smith
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Article |
A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
Fundamental value judgments about acceptable maximum levels of climate change and future reliance on controversial technologies can be made explicitly in climate scenarios, thereby addressing the intergenerational bias present in the scenario literature.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , Daniel Huppmann
- & Malte Meinshausen
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Article |
Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population
The effect of cities on urban climate (often warmer but sometimes cooler than their surroundings) is largely explained by local hydroclimate and patterns of city development.
- Gabriele Manoli
- , Simone Fatichi
- & Elie Bou-Zeid
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Perspective |
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
A method of tracking changes in estimates of the remaining carbon budget over time should help to reconcile differences between these estimates and clarify their usefulness for setting emission reduction targets.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , Piers M. Forster
- & Roland Séférian
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Letter |
Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target
A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- Dan Tong
- , Qiang Zhang
- & Steven J. Davis
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Letter |
Trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives
Simulations of commonly proposed forest-management portfolios for Europe show that no single portfolio would meet all the requirements of the Paris Agreement, and climate benefits from forest management would be modest and local.
- Sebastiaan Luyssaert
- , Guillaume Marie
- & Matthew J. McGrath
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Perspective |
The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming
The results of efforts to limit global mean warming to below 1.5 °C may include many possible future world climates.
- Sonia I. Seneviratne
- , Joeri Rogelj
- & Rachel F. Warren
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Letter |
Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions
Contrary to the hopes of policymakers, fossil fuel subsidy removal would have only a small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030.
- Jessica Jewell
- , David McCollum
- & Keywan Riahi
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Outlook |
We have the technology
Carbon capture and storage will be crucial for mitigating climate change and rebuilding the world's energy infrastructure.
- Katherine Bourzac
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Letter |
Closing yield gaps in China by empowering smallholder farmers
The authors report on attempts to increase the yield of smallholder farms in China using ten practices recommended by the Science and Technology Backyard for farming maize and wheat at county level.
- Weifeng Zhang
- , Guoxin Cao
- & Zhengxia Dou
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Perspective |
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
The objective of the Paris climate agreement is to limit global-average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to further pursue limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius; here, the adequacy of the national plans submitted in preparation for this agreement is assessed, and it is concluded that substantial enhancement or over-delivery on these plans is required to have a reasonable chance of achieving the Paris climate objective.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , Michel den Elzen
- & Malte Meinshausen
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Letter |
The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing
Using a global coupled biogeochemistry–climate model and a chemistry and transport model reveals that China’s present-day global radiative forcing is about ten per cent of the current global total, made up of both warming and cooling contributions; if in the future China reduces the cooling forcings, global warming could accelerate.
- Bengang Li
- , Thomas Gasser
- & Feng Zhou
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Perspective |
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries.
- Sonia I. Seneviratne
- , Markus G. Donat
- & Robert L. Wilby
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Letter |
Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China
A revised estimate of Chinese carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production is presented, based on updated energy consumption and clinker production data and two new sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal.
- Zhu Liu
- , Dabo Guan
- & Kebin He
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Letter |
Expression of barley SUSIBA2 transcription factor yields high-starch low-methane rice
Expression of a barley transcription factor SUSIBA2 in rice generates a plant with high-starch content and low-methane emissions by conferring a shift in the carbon flux that favours the allocation of photosynthates to aboveground biomass rather than to the roots.
- J. Su
- , C. Hu
- & C. Sun
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Letter |
The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C
To limit global warming to a rise of 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, we cannot use all of our fossil fuel reserves; here an integrated assessment model shows that this temperature limit implies that we must leave unused a third of our oil reserves, half of our gas reserves and over 80 per cent of our coal reserves during the next 40 years, and indicates where these are geographically located.
- Christophe McGlade
- & Paul Ekins
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Letter |
Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas
It has been hoped that making abundant natural gas available by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) would reduce greenhouse gas emissions but now modelling shows that increased consumption will have limited effect on climate change.
- Haewon McJeon
- , Jae Edmonds
- & Massimo Tavoni
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Letter |
Carbonic anhydrases, EPF2 and a novel protease mediate CO2 control of stomatal development
The continuing rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suppresses the development of stomatal pores, and thus gas exchange, in plant leaves on a global scale; now, a framework of mechanisms by which carbon dioxide represses development has been identified.
- Cawas B. Engineer
- , Majid Ghassemian
- & Julian I. Schroeder
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Letter |
Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation
Modelling that integrates the effects of uncertainties in relevant geophysical, technological, social and political factors on the cost of keeping transient global temperature increase to below certain limits shows that political choices have the greatest effect on the cost distribution.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , David L. McCollum
- & Keywan Riahi
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Editorial |
A charter for geoengineering
A controversial field trial of technology to mitigate climate change has been cancelled, but research continues. A robust governance framework is sorely needed to prevent further setbacks.
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News |
Pollutants key to climate fix
Governments look to reduce methane and black carbon as a way to slow warming.
- Jeff Tollefson