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| Open AccessVegetation dieback in the Mississippi River Delta triggered by acute drought and chronic relative sea-level rise
Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Here, the authors use 16 years of data to correlate vegetation dieback in the Mississippi River Delta to drought-induced salt water intrusion in the summer of 2012.
- Tracy Elsey-Quirk
- , Austin Lynn
- & Dubravko Justic
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Article
| Open AccessWarming drives dissolved organic carbon export from pristine alpine soils
The temperature-sensitivity of soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export is widely debated but limited by the duration of observations. New data from environmental archives supports a pronounced sensitivity between soil DOC leaching and warming.
- Andrew R. Pearson
- , Bethany R. S. Fox
- & Adam Hartland
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Article
| Open AccessPhysiography, foraging mobility, and the first peopling of Sahul
The speed and route by which Homo sapiens colonised Sahul is an ongoing topic of research. Here, the authors model the physical environment as it changes through time in combination with Lévy walk foraging patterns to suggest a wave of dispersal following coastlines and rivers.
- Tristan Salles
- , Renaud Joannes-Boyau
- & Manon Lorcery
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Article
| Open AccessIntegrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping
The study introduces a method of integrating gridded estimates of social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk maps demonstrating new insights into the geography of flood risk within and between countries.
- Sean Fox
- , Felix Agyemang
- & Jeffrey Neal
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Article
| Open AccessField-scale crop water consumption estimates reveal potential water savings in California agriculture
This study introduces a novel framework for generating high-resolution, in-situ estimates of agricultural evapotranspiration (ET) using satellite-based ET data combined with machine learning. This approach is leveraged to assess the water-saving potential of various management strategies and in calculating irrigation efficiency across California’s Central Valley.
- Anna Boser
- , Kelly Caylor
- & Tamma Carleton
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes
Earth system modeling is used to project future changes in North American wetlands. Climate change will reduce inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes, with substantial summer drying and shrinkage in cold regions.
- Donghui Xu
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Article
| Open AccessImprint of urbanization on snow precipitation over the continental USA
This study shows that urban areas in the continental US are associated with decreased snowfall likelihood and frequency, in large part due to surface albedo contrasts with neighboring areas. They also see a faster decline in snow precipitation frequency with time.
- Kaustubh Anil Salvi
- & Mukesh Kumar
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation enhances curvature-driven dynamics in meandering rivers
Riparian vegetation densities critically mediate the morphodynamics of meandering rivers: plants slow the rate at which channels move laterally and reinforce the key, first-order control that curvature exerts on meander planform evolution.
- Alvise Finotello
- , Alessandro Ielpi
- & Andrea D’Alpaos
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Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
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Article
| Open AccessLarge-scale groundwater flow and sedimentary diagenesis in continental shelves influence marine chemical budgets
New mass-balance calculations show that the bulk chemistry of the ocean is strongly influenced by flow of seawater through sediments deep within continental shelves, with implications for global carbon budgets.
- Alicia M. Wilson
- , Andrew Osborne
- & Scott M. White
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Article
| Open AccessRising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin
Increasing rainfall intensity produces opposite hydrological effects across a large river basin in South China (drying in the uplands vs. wetting in the lowlands) due to spatially contrasting interactions between rainfall intensification and topography.
- Yiping Wu
- , Xiaowei Yin
- & Decheng Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessRecent intensified erosion and massive sediment deposition in Tibetan Plateau rivers
Climate change intensifies erosion and sediment transport in rivers of the Tibetan Plateau. Satellite data unveil unprecedented patterns of sediment deposition in rivers. Pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneities within and across basins are found.
- Jinlong Li
- , Genxu Wang
- & Dongfeng Li
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Article
| Open AccessAn artificial intelligence-based model for optimal conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources
Towards optimizing the conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions, here the authors propose a hybrid method involving moth-swarm and symbiotic organism search algorithms and artificial neural networks and demonstrate it for the HalīlRood basin.
- Saeid Akbarifard
- , Mohamad Reza Madadi
- & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani
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Article
| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
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Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
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Article
| Open AccessCarbonate chemistry and carbon sequestration driven by inorganic carbon outwelling from mangroves and saltmarshes
Global observations from mangroves and saltmarshes unravel hidden carbon pathways. Inorganic carbon outwelling is revealed to dominate carbon budgets, impact coastal pH, and enhance the climate mitigation potential of blue carbon ecosystems.
- Gloria M. S. Reithmaier
- , Alex Cabral
- & Isaac R. Santos
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Article
| Open AccessTracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic
The Arctic is dotted with lakes, including thermokarst lakes highly threatened by climate change. Here, the authors investigate 35 years of lake drainage events and related vegetation trends across the Arctic, finding differences between thermokarst and non-thermokarst lake drainage events.
- Yating Chen
- , Xiao Cheng
- & Chengxin Wang
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Article
| Open AccessLong-term sea level rise modeling of a basin-tidal inlet system reveals sediment sinks
Barrier islands and backbarrier saltmarshes are particularly threatened by sea level rise. Here, the authors show how reduction in intertidal areas create negative feedback, shifting transport of coarse sediment through the inlet from net export to net import.
- Kevin C. Hanegan
- , Duncan M. FitzGerald
- & Zoe J. Hughes
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Article
| Open AccessAmbient noise differential adjoint tomography reveals fluid-bearing rocks near active faults in Los Angeles
A new study enhances investigates in the groundwater (Silverado) aquifer in urban Los Angeles using a new method from earth’s ambient ground vibrations. The authors find slow S wave velocity corresponds to fluid-bearing rocks, some of which are near active faults.
- Xin Liu
- , Gregory C. Beroza
- & Hongyi Li
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| Open AccessClimate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale
Global-scale structural connectivity is modeled by tectonic and climate processes. Modeling suggests that as the climate warms, it could lead to increased erosion in source areas, while decreased rainfall may hinder sediment flow downstream.
- Alexander T. Michalek
- , Gabriele Villarini
- & Admin Husic
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| Open AccessDecline in Iran’s groundwater recharge
Groundwater recharge feeds aquifers supplying fresh-water to a population over 80 million in Iran. The authors here show a significant decline of around −3.8 mm/yr in the nationwide groundwater recharge.
- Roohollah Noori
- , Mohsen Maghrebi
- & Amir AghaKouchak
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| Open AccessPatterns and drivers of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands
Wetlands can affect regional climate by altering surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper investigates drivers and patterns of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands, from the Amazon floodplains to the large Pantanal system.
- Ayan Santos Fleischmann
- , Leonardo Laipelt
- & Anderson Ruhoff
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| Open AccessWindows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
This paper highlights the potential for improved monitoring and physical understanding to identify windows of opportunity for more confident seasonal forecasts and early warnings of regional climate extremes, such as the Pakistan floods of 2022.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug M. Smith
- & Adam A. Scaife
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Article
| Open AccessProjected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic
This model study finds that by the end of the century, moisture from the North Atlantic Ocean will increase precipitation over eastern North America in winter and autumn, while precipitation moisture source from the Mediterranean Sea will decrease precipitation over eastern Europe.
- José C. Fernández-Alvarez
- , Albenis Pérez-Alarcón
- & Luis Gimeno
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| Open AccessFuture precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal land subsidence mapping reveals widespread loss of aquifer storage capacity
Groundwater overdraft can lead to land subsidence and groundwater storage loss. Here, the authors develop a machine learning-based method to map subsidence globally, explore subsidence drivers, and identify regions under high groundwater stress.
- Md Fahim Hasan
- , Ryan Smith
- & Sayantan Majumdar
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Article
| Open AccessA cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Article
| Open AccessUnchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
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Article
| Open AccessDrainage explains soil liquefaction beyond the earthquake near-field
Soil-liquefaction is a catastrophic seismic hazard, usually attributed to poor drainage. Here the authors show that liquefaction driven by fluid drainage explains puzzling triggering far from the earthquake source, where shaking is less energetic
- Shahar Ben-Zeev
- , Liran Goren
- & Einat Aharonov
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Article
| Open AccessRiver interlinking alters land-atmosphere feedback and changes the Indian summer monsoon
Connecting river basins using canals and reservoirs can improve water security but can also perturb land-atmosphere feedbacks. This paper analyzes India’s river-interlinking projects and finds that such projects can affect the monsoon rainfall.
- Tejasvi Chauhan
- , Anjana Devanand
- & Subimal Ghosh
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Article
| Open AccessDeciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution
Distinguishing local hydrological, cave internal, and regional monsoon signals in speleothem records resolves disagreements among proxy reconstructions and illuminates the Holocene evolution of summer and winter monsoon in Southeast Asia.
- Annabel Wolf
- , Vasile Ersek
- & Anh Duc Trinh
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Comment
| Open AccessDrainage network response to Arctic warming
Rapid Arctic warming may increase erosion and stream channel formation, which alters the flux of sediments, carbon, and nutrients in these sensitive ecosystems. Yet, understanding landscape change is hampered by a lack of predictive tools applicable to permafrost settings.
- Joel C. Rowland
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| Open AccessHigh Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground
Accelerating global warming is driving profound Arctic environmental change. The authors show that the structure and evolution of new stream networks are influenced by the evolving character of geometric ground patterns related to the response of permafrost to recent climate change.
- Shawn M. Chartrand
- , A. Mark Jellinek
- & Shannon Hibbard
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Article
| Open AccessSatellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica
Historical velocity maps reveal over five decade-long acceleration and high-level discharge in Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, from 1963-2018, induced by warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water.
- Rongxing Li
- , Yuan Cheng
- & Wenkai Ye
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Article
| Open AccessImportance of subsurface water for hydrological response during storms in a post-wildfire bedrock landscape
This study tracks changes in post-fire hydrology in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA, and finds that rapid infiltration and storage of subsurface water in burned catchments contributes to increased streamflow during storms.
- Abra Atwood
- , Madeline Hille
- & A. Joshua West
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Article
| Open AccessThe evolution of dam induced river fragmentation in the United States
Dam construction reshaped the river networks of the United States. Arid basins are naturally more fragmented than humid. However, the opposite is true in the US today. Extensive dam building has created highly fragmented basins in the eastern US.
- Rachel A. Spinti
- , Laura E. Condon
- & Jun Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessEnhancing rice production sustainability and resilience via reactivating small water bodies for irrigation and drainage
Ponds played an important role in ancient rice-growing regions such as China and India. Here, the authors find that reviving small water bodies to recycle drainage water for irrigation can reduce China’s rice production water footprint by 9% and alleviate 2-3% yield loss in dry years.
- Sisi Li
- , Yanhua Zhuang
- & Liang Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessOffshore freshened groundwater in the Pearl River estuary and shelf as a significant water resource
A large and relatively fresh groundwater reservoir is identified in Pearl River estuary and adjacent shelf. This offshore low-salinity groundwater, likely a global phenomenon, has great potential to alleviate the pressure of future water shortages.
- Chong Sheng
- , Jiu Jimmy Jiao
- & Jinghe Cao
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Article
| Open AccessLate-fall satellite-based soil moisture observations show clear connections to subsequent spring streamflow
Satellite-based estimates of soil moisture are shown to correlate significantly with streamflow measured several months in the future, opening the door to improved streamflow prediction – including in areas that are not otherwise well monitored.
- Randal D. Koster
- , Qing Liu
- & Rolf H. Reichle
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Article
| Open AccessDiminishing storage returns of reservoir construction
Despite the continually increasing global reservoir storage, the normalized storage—the ratio of the actual storage to the storage capacity—has declined over the past two decades, indicating diminishing storage returns from reservoir construction.
- Yao Li
- , Gang Zhao
- & Huilin Gao
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Comment
| Open AccessSmall watersheds may play a disproportionate role in arctic land-ocean fluxes
While over 99% of coastal arctic rivers drain small catchments, future projections of land-ocean fluxes are based on data from large rivers. We encourage inclusion of and increased focus on smaller catchments to support representative assessments of arctic ecosystem change.
- J. E. Vonk
- , N. J. Speetjens
- & A. E. Poste
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Article
| Open AccessQuantitative constraints on flood variability in the rock record
Dunes and woody-debris preserved in the rock record have been used to quantify the magnitude and duration of flow events in ancient rivers, revealing a fluvial system dominated by flashy, storm-driven floods 300 million years ago.
- Jonah S. McLeod
- , James Wood
- & Alexander C. Whittaker
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Article
| Open AccessExtreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate
In this study, the authors use eddy-resolving climate model simulations and project an almost linear increase of extreme atmospheric rivers with global warming and a doubling of their occurrence under a high emission scenario.
- Shuyu Wang
- , Xiaohui Ma
- & Bolan Gan
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Article
| Open AccessLarge anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics
This study attributes extreme precipitation scaling into thermodynamic versus dynamic components and further decomposes the thermodynamic effects into more detailed terms to reveal the physics of extreme precipitation under climate warming.
- Lei Gu
- , Jiabo Yin
- & Shenglian Guo
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal catchment memory of high mountain rivers in the Tibetan Plateau
This study investigates the seasonal catchment memory of rivers in the Tibetan Plateau, with the help of a water storage change model. Understanding catchment memory can aid in hydrological forecasts and water resource management
- Haiting Gu
- , Yue-Ping Xu
- & Yuxue Guo
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Article
| Open AccessFood demand displaced by global refugee migration influences water use in already water stressed countries
While minimal in most host countries, the water needed to produce the food consumed by refugees can have a large effect on water stress in vulnerable countries. Small changes to food trade and refugee resettlement policies can alleviate this unequal burden.
- Leonardo Bertassello
- , Marc F. Müller
- & Michèle C. Müller-Itten
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Article
| Open AccessFlood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns
This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. The authors show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behavior.
- Laura Devitt
- , Jeffrey Neal
- & Thorsten Wagener
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Article
| Open AccessInadequacy of fluvial energetics for describing gravity current autosuspension
This study shows that the total energy loss of gravity currents has a non-linear dependence on the work required to keep sediment in suspension, highlighting the importance of large-scale mixing for the particulate transport of gravity currents.
- Sojiro Fukuda
- , Marijke G. W. de Vet
- & Robert M. Dorrell
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal scale analysis on the extent of river channel belts
Here the authors present a global scale classification of river channel belt extents as a resource for improved ecosystem accounting and river behavior analysis. Moreover, the methods show advances in pattern recognition to define new global landform products.
- Björn Nyberg
- , Gijs Henstra
- & Juha Ahokas