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| Open AccessA unifying modelling of multiple land degradation pathways in Europe
This study presents an unprecedented analysis of agricultural land multi-degradation in 40 European countries, using twelve dataset-based processes that were modelled as land degradation convergence and combination pathways across the continent.
- Remus Prăvălie
- , Pasquale Borrelli
- & Marius-Victor Birsan
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation dieback in the Mississippi River Delta triggered by acute drought and chronic relative sea-level rise
Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Here, the authors use 16 years of data to correlate vegetation dieback in the Mississippi River Delta to drought-induced salt water intrusion in the summer of 2012.
- Tracy Elsey-Quirk
- , Austin Lynn
- & Dubravko Justic
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Article
| Open AccessLandslide hazard cascades can trigger earthquakes
While earthquakes are known to trigger landslides and initiate hazard cascades, the authors show that landslide hazard cascades can instead trigger earthquakes by increasing stresses on faults through direct loading and pore pressure diffusion.
- Zhen Zhang
- , Min Liu
- & Jinrong Su
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Article
| Open AccessContamination of 8.2 ka cold climate records by the Storegga tsunami in the Nordic Seas
Tsunamis can disturb sea floor sediments. This study shows that climate records of the famous 8200-year-old cold spell inferred from Norwegian Sea sediments are likely contaminated by tsunami waves from the giant Storegga Landslide.
- Stein Bondevik
- , Bjørg Risebrobakken
- & Finn Løvholt
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| Open AccessLandslide topology uncovers failure movements
This study analyzes the 3d shapes of landslides and introduces a method to discern landslide movements, such as slides, flows and falls.
- Kushanav Bhuyan
- , Kamal Rana
- & Nishant Malik
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Article
| Open AccessFire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation
Fire suppression removes less-extreme wildfires, concentrating fires under extreme conditions. The authors use model simulations to show how this “suppression bias” intensifies fire behavior and effects, beyond fuel accumulation and climate change impacts.
- Mark R. Kreider
- , Philip E. Higuera
- & Andrew J. Larson
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessCoastal shoreline change assessments at global scales
- Jonathan A. Warrick
- , Daniel Buscombe
- & Adam P. Young
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Article
| Open AccessPolicy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast
Subsidies for coastal management and tax advantages for high-income property owners dampen the negative effects of climate risks on coastal property values. Without subsidies or tax advantages market prices better reflect climate risks, but coastal gentrification could accelerate.
- Dylan E. McNamara
- , Martin D. Smith
- & Craig E. Landry
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Satellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessSatellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Louis Giglio
- & David P. Roy
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Article
| Open AccessThe influence of anthropogenic regulation and evaporite dissolution on earthquake-triggered ground failure
Combined evidence from remote sensing, geologic, and geotechnical data reveal a previously undescribed mechanism driving earthquake-triggered surface ejecta: dissolution cavity collapse.
- Paula Bürgi
- , Eric M. Thompson
- & Devin Katzenstein
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Article
| Open AccessThe North Equatorial Current and rapid intensification of super typhoons
The authors show that the deep thermocline and strong stratification of the North Equatorial Current of the western North Pacific cause rapid intensification and maintain tropical cyclones, as with 2018 Mangkhut, the longest Category-5 super typhoon in record.
- Sok Kuh Kang
- , Sung-Hun Kim
- & Brian Ward
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records
There is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors.
- Ting Wang
- , Jonathan D. Griffin
- & Jie Kang
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Article
| Open AccessVolcano generated tsunami recorded in the near source
Tsunami generated by pyroclastic flows are recorded in near-source condition. Waveform remains stable for different velocity and geometry of the sliding body. Volume is calculated from tsunami height. Tsunami occurring near populated coast can be detected automatically in real-time.
- M. Ripepe
- & G. Lacanna
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Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
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Article
| Open AccessMonitoring ocean currents during the passage of Typhoon Muifa using optical-fiber distributed acoustic sensing
Using microseismic noise observed by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with a submarine cable, this study measures the magnitude and direction of ocean currents during the passage of typhoon Muifa and estimates the ocean wave propagation.
- Jianmin Lin
- , Sunke Fang
- & Wen Xu
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Article
| Open AccessRising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin
Increasing rainfall intensity produces opposite hydrological effects across a large river basin in South China (drying in the uplands vs. wetting in the lowlands) due to spatially contrasting interactions between rainfall intensification and topography.
- Yiping Wu
- , Xiaowei Yin
- & Decheng Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessQuantifying coastal freshwater extremes during unprecedented rainfall using long timeseries multi-platform salinity observations
In 2022, record rainfall in Australia impacted coastal salinity and circulation. In this paper, the authors used ocean gliders to track extreme low salinity conditions that lasted months and extended over 70 km offshore.
- Neil Malan
- , Moninya Roughan
- & Tim Ingleton
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Article
| Open AccessMethane-hydrogen-rich fluid migration may trigger seismic failure in subduction zones at forearc depths
This study provides evidence for the migration of deep energy sources along tectonic discontinuities in subduction zones and suggests causal relationships with brittle failure of hard rocks that may trigger seismic activity.
- Francesco Giuntoli
- , Luca Menegon
- & Alberto Vitale Brovarone
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| Open AccessProduction-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field
Authors develop an approach to distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes. Seismicity at the Groningen gas field is solely induced. The probabilities to trigger tectonic earthquakes indicate the inherent stability of the field.
- Nepomuk Boitz
- , Cornelius Langenbruch
- & Serge A. Shapiro
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Article
| Open AccessInforming disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses
Post-disaster education continuity is a significant global challenge. The study demonstrates that scenario-based recovery analyses can help quantify the impact of disaster management policies on post-disaster education continuity in low-income countries.
- Eyitayo A. Opabola
- & Carmine Galasso
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Article
| Open AccessFlood exposure and pregnancy loss in 33 developing countries
Flooding impacts billions globally and indirect health effects are not sufficiently examined, especially for women in developing countries. Here, the authors show that flood exposure during pregnancy correlates with a higher risk of pregnancy loss, particularly for marginalized women, revealing increased health disparities in a changing climate.
- Cheng He
- , Yixiang Zhu
- & Haidong Kan
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole
The recent accelerated expansion of glacial lakes and increased glacial lake outburst flood activities in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings indicate that numerous communities and infrastructure downstream are at a higher flood risk than previously understood.
- Taigang Zhang
- , Weicai Wang
- & Lele Wei
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Article
| Open AccessMetal toxin threat in wildland fires determined by geology and fire severity
Carcinogenic heavy metals are an underappreciated public health concern from wildfire. Fire severity, geology, and ecosystem type influence landscape-scale production of hexavalent chromium, concentrated in wind-dispersible particles.
- Alandra Marie Lopez
- , Juan Lezama Pacheco
- & Scott Fendorf
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| Open AccessReconciling patterns of long-term topographic growth with coseismic uplift by synchronous duplex thrusting
Deciphering the relationship between prolonged topographic growth and temporary earthquake uplift is challenging due to the mismatch in their deformation patterns. Zhang et al. introduce a novel model to address this highly hotly-debated discrepancy.
- Yuqing Zhang
- , Hanlin Chen
- & Xiu Hu
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| Open AccessExploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement
Ronco and colleagues analyze disaster-induced movements in the presence of floods, storms, and landslides during 2016–2021, providing empirical evidence that differential vulnerability exists and quantifying its extent. They achieve this by employing explainable machine learning techniques to model and understand internal displacement flows and patterns from observational data.
- Michele Ronco
- , José María Tárraga
- & Gustau Camps-Valls
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Article
| Open AccessVolcaniclastic density currents explain widespread and diverse seafloor impacts of the 2022 Hunga Volcano eruption
During the 2022 Hunga Volcano eruption, 10 km3 of seafloor material was removed, fueling long-run out seafloor density currents. These powerful currents damaged seafloor cables over a length of >100 km, reshaped the seafloor, and caused mass-mortality of seafloor life.
- Sarah Seabrook
- , Kevin Mackay
- & Michael J. M. Williams
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Article
| Open AccessThe social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
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Article
| Open AccessFlood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains
This study finds that flood insurance policy design affects economic development in floodplains and, consequently, flood risk in Europe. Therefore, the authors advocate for flood insurance design to be integrated in climate change adaptation policy.
- Max Tesselaar
- , W. J. Wouter Botzen
- & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence of an upper ionospheric electric field perturbation correlated with a gamma ray burst
Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are known to have impact on Earth’s lower ionosphere, but GRB impacts on the upper ionosphere was not observed before. Here, the authors show strong electric field variation at 500 km in the ionosphere caused by GRB221009A.
- Mirko Piersanti
- , Pietro Ubertini
- & Paolo Zuccon
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Article
| Open AccessOrigin of outer tropical cyclone rainbands
Convectively active, hazardous rainbands within tropical cyclones are shown to originate primarily from outside the inner core of the cyclone. This outer-origin dominance is partly attributed to squall-line processes and deserves future attention.
- Cheng-Ku Yu
- , Che-Yu Lin
- & Chi-Hang Pun
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Article
| Open AccessAmbient noise differential adjoint tomography reveals fluid-bearing rocks near active faults in Los Angeles
A new study enhances investigates in the groundwater (Silverado) aquifer in urban Los Angeles using a new method from earth’s ambient ground vibrations. The authors find slow S wave velocity corresponds to fluid-bearing rocks, some of which are near active faults.
- Xin Liu
- , Gregory C. Beroza
- & Hongyi Li
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Article
| Open AccessUsing drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots
Identification of areas with risk factors for spillover of viruses from animals to humans could assist with early detection of emerging infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise potential risks for spillover of SARS-like viruses from bats to humans and identify geographical regions in which multiple risk factors cluster together.
- Renata L. Muylaert
- , David A. Wilkinson
- & David T. S. Hayman
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Article
| Open AccessMortality risks from a spectrum of causes associated with sand and dust storms in China
Sand and dust storms pose considerable health risks worldwide. Here, the authors conduct a nationwide multicenter time-series study to examine sand and dust storm-associated mortality risks.
- Can Zhang
- , Meilin Yan
- & Tiantian Li
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Article
| Open AccessHeat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- , Julien Cattiaux
- & Pascal Yiou
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Article
| Open AccessCascading events during the 1650 tsunamigenic eruption of Kolumbo volcano
Three-dimensional seismic data is used to reconstruct the flank collapse of Kolombo volcano in 1650, which led to a catastrophic tsunami event.
- Jens Karstens
- , Gareth J. Crutchley
- & Christian Berndt
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Article
| Open AccessWildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales
This paper shows that weather and fuel precursors show complementary predictability of wildfires extending across different timescales, which may be leveraged for seasonal or interannual wildfire prediction.
- Yuquan Qu
- , Diego G. Miralles
- & Carsten Montzka
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Article
| Open AccessMagmatic connectivity among six Galápagos volcanoes revealed by satellite geodesy
Reddin et al. use satellite radar to measure deformation at six Galápagos volcanoes. They observe correlated deformation signals between multiple volcanoes and attribute them to temporally varying plume supply into interconnected magmatic systems.
- Eoin Reddin
- , Susanna K. Ebmeier
- & Santiago Aguaiza
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Article
| Open AccessDeterministic full-scenario analysis for maximum credible earthquake hazards
Deterministic numerical simulations are employed to study the maximum credible earthquake hazard for a specific fault. The method is then applied for seismic hazard analysis at the Xiluodu dam in China, and its potential for earthquake engineering is evaluated.
- Xiang-Chao Wang
- , Jin-Ting Wang
- & Chu-Han Zhang
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| Open AccessWindows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
This paper highlights the potential for improved monitoring and physical understanding to identify windows of opportunity for more confident seasonal forecasts and early warnings of regional climate extremes, such as the Pakistan floods of 2022.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug M. Smith
- & Adam A. Scaife
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Reported ultra-low lava viscosities from the 2021 La Palma eruption are potentially biased
- J. M. Castro
- & Y. Feisel
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReported ultra-low lava viscosities from the 2021 La Palma eruption are potentially biased
- Guillem Gisbert
- , Valentin R. Troll
- & Juan Carlos Carracedo
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Article
| Open AccessWarming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation
This study, based on a large set of climate simulations, suggests a delay and reduction of hurricane formation in a warmer climate, linked to the warming-induced contraction of tropical ascents that makes rainstorms more concentrated near the equator.
- Gan Zhang
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| Open AccessGlobal land subsidence mapping reveals widespread loss of aquifer storage capacity
Groundwater overdraft can lead to land subsidence and groundwater storage loss. Here, the authors develop a machine learning-based method to map subsidence globally, explore subsidence drivers, and identify regions under high groundwater stress.
- Md Fahim Hasan
- , Ryan Smith
- & Sayantan Majumdar
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Article
| Open AccessUnchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
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Article
| Open AccessThe global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change
Neman and Noy estimate the global climate change costs of extreme weather and find that US\(\$\) 143 B/yr of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. The majority of this is due to human loss of life.
- Rebecca Newman
- & Ilan Noy
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Article
| Open AccessDrainage explains soil liquefaction beyond the earthquake near-field
Soil-liquefaction is a catastrophic seismic hazard, usually attributed to poor drainage. Here the authors show that liquefaction driven by fluid drainage explains puzzling triggering far from the earthquake source, where shaking is less energetic
- Shahar Ben-Zeev
- , Liran Goren
- & Einat Aharonov
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Article
| Open AccessBroad fault zones enable deep fluid transport and limit earthquake magnitudes
Geophysical data from Chain Transform Fault reveal that broad damage zones preferentially facilitate fluid transport that cools the mantle, increasing earthquake depths. Fluids weaken the fault and segment it, limiting earthquake magnitudes.
- Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos
- , Catherine A. Rychert
- & Satish C. Singh
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Article
| Open AccessPropagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures
The study reveals distinct extreme rainfall propagation modes driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indo-Pacific region. These are influenced by Pacific sea surface temperatures and offer the potential for early warnings.
- Felix M. Strnad
- , Jakob Schlör
- & Bedartha Goswami